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Date: Fri, 8 Jun 2001 08:06:05 -0700 (PDT)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: kamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Fri, Jun 08, 2001
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Syncrasy - Weather for Business=20
=09


      Syncrasy, LLC?    713.228.8470 Off   713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Ave=
nue     Suite 1314      Houston, TX 77002    www.syncrasy.com      Sales:  =
                 713.228.4407   Development Offices:   970.247.4139 Off   9=
70.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue       Suite 221        Durango, CO 81301 =
  =09=09    Complementary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and=
 APB Energy Inc.     - If you would like to receive this product first thin=
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mail to subscribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com        Data last updated  Frid=
ay, Jun 08, 2001 at 07:46AM EST    Commentary last updated  Friday, Jun 08,=
 2001 at 08:47AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Q=
uote    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' =
    Today: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun  8, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   De=
lta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR=
(CTR)  76  +1  ERCOT(SP)  87  NC  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  80  +2  MAIN(=
CTR)  77  +1  MAPP(HP)  77  NC  NPCC(NE)  77  +3  SERC(SE)  83  NC  SPP(SP)=
  83  NC  WSCC(NW)  75  NC  WSCC(RK)  81  -1  WSCC(SW)  87  +1      Range S=
tandard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   72 76 70=
 69 79 80 84 85  Max    77 81 77 76 83 84 87 89  Min     67 73 64 62 76 76 =
81 80  Range  10 7 14 13 7 8 6 9  StD-P  3.1 1.8 5.2 4.0 3.1 2.9 2.2 2.6  C=
ount  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9    Day 1-5 Discussion:  The Gulf Coast and Southeast =
continue to be the highlight regions due to their heavy rain potential into=
 early next week. The remnants of Allison may still be spinning in the regi=
on early next week. Since the system has started moving SSW toward the Gulf=
 Waters, speculation may intensify to the possibility of regeneration. I st=
ill don't expect it, but I can not dismiss the potential entirely. Whether =
this happens or not, more heavy rain looks likely from SE Texas into Alabam=
a. There have been unofficial reports of close to two feet of rain in SE Te=
xas. The rain though farther North and East remains welcome. Into Florida a=
nd the Carolina's, a cold front will spark additional welcome moderate to h=
eavy rains.  The above developments may help to put a lid on daytime temper=
atures in the deep South for a few more days. This is not the case! for the=
 Plains however. The ridge that has been in the SW for weeks now will flex =
NE. Temperatures in the 90's could get as far North as Nebraska and Iowa. A=
 mild NW flow aloft will keep things slightly below normal from the Lakes t=
o the Mid-Atlantic though a strong June sun is starting to work on the atmo=
sphere. The only fresh cooling in the short term will be in the PNW as the =
next upper low moves in. This cooling should spread into the Northern Plain=
s early next week.  Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun  9, 2001.  Sync=
rasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image t=
o enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  78  +1  ERCOT(SP)  88  NC  FRCC(SE)  88  NC  MAAC=
(NE)  79  +1  MAIN(CTR)  80  +1  MAPP(HP)  79  NC  NPCC(NE)  74  +2  SERC(S=
E)  85  NC  SPP(SP)  86  NC  WSCC(NW)  71  +2  WSCC(RK)  85  +1  WSCC(SW)  =
86  +1      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  S=
W   Mean   74 79 68 65 83 80 85 83  Max    80 84 76 73 87 85 88 88  Min    =
 68 74 62 59 79 76 81 79  Range  11 9 13 14 7 9 7 8  StD-P  3.3 2.3 5.0 4.4=
 2.7 3.2 2.5 2.3  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9   Day 3: Summary Forecast for Sun,=
 Jun 10, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix       =
   (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  79  +1  ERCOT(SP)  90  -1  FR=
CC(SE)  89  +1  MAAC(NE)  82  +1  MAIN(CTR)  81  NC  MAPP(HP)  81  +1  NPCC=
(NE)  76  NC  SERC(SE)  88  +1  SPP(SP)  89  -1  WSCC(NW)  66  +2  WSCC(RK)=
  82  +2  WSCC(SW)  83  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  N=
E  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   75 80 69 59 83 82 87 82  Max    80 82 78 67 =
85 88 91 84  Min     71 76 63 54 80 78 83 79  Range  10 6 15 13 5 10 8 5  S=
tD-P  2.8 2.2 5.7 4.1 1.5 3.9 2.7 1.6  Count  7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7   Day 4: Summ=
ary Forecast for Mon, Jun 11, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Vol=
atility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  80  -2  =
ERCOT(SP)  91  -1  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  77  -4  MAIN(CTR)  83  NC  M=
APP(HP)  81  +5  NPCC(NE)  75  NC  SERC(SE)  88  -1  SPP(SP)  90  +1  WSCC(=
NW)  64  -3  WSCC(RK)  77  +2  WSCC(SW)  82  NC      Range Standard Deviati=
on     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   77 77 67 57 79 82 87 80=
  Max    82 80 76 64 80 88 91 82  Min     72 73 62 52 76 79 84 79  Range  9=
 7 13 12 5 9 7 3  StD-P  2.7 2.3 3.5 4.1 1.7 2.9 2.3 1.1  Count  5 5 5 5 5 =
5 5 5   Day 5: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 12, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice: =
  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     =
ECAR(CTR)  84  NC  ERCOT(SP)  90  -1  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  81  -2  M=
AIN(CTR)  82  +4  MAPP(HP)  74  +2  NPCC(NE)  77  -1  SERC(SE)  88  -1  SPP=
(SP)  87  +3  WSCC(NW)  67  -3  WSCC(RK)  70  -3  WSCC(SW)  82  NC      Ran=
ge Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   75 6=
8 67 60 66 80 84 77  Max    80 73 79 67 74 88 90 83  Min     66 61 60 40 49=
 74 75 58  Range  14 12 19 28 25 14 15 25  StD-P  3.9 4.3 3.8 6.8 6.6 2.8 3=
.3 6.3  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 Discussion:  For the first time =
in awhile, the various longer range models are coming to a consensus. There=
 is still a question in my mind as to whether I accept the solution. The mo=
dels now agree to expand the ridge into the Eastern U.S. later next week an=
d beyond. There are a number of compelling arguments to support this scenar=
io. If one translates the upper level features down to the surface you get =
a return to the early April heat in the Northeast. The one difference thoug=
h is the addition of tropical air to the mix. Where it does not rain, AC de=
mand will certainly soar, but it is my feeling that there will be Showers a=
nd a cold front passage or two despite the upper level look. So, while yes =
it will be warming(and thats been well documented here for over a week) I w=
ant to see what the models look like Monday before committing to an expande=
d warm spel! l here. Besides this is all contingent on the next Pacific upp=
er low lifting far North into Canada, a situation I am not yet convinced on=
. That low, by the way spells more tstorm mischief and cooling into the Nor=
thern Plains and Great Lakes during this period. The deep South slowly drie=
s out while the east expansion of the ridge allows the amplitude to modify =
a bit in the West. Overall, it does look much more like a summer pattern na=
tionally. It should though, climatological summer is less than 2 weeks away=
.  Day 6: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun 13, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Del=
ta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(=
CTR)  82  +3  ERCOT(SP)  89  NC  FRCC(SE)  90  NC  MAAC(NE)  83  +3  MAIN(C=
TR)  77  +2  MAPP(HP)  71  -1  NPCC(NE)  79  +3  SERC(SE)  87  NC  SPP(SP) =
 80  +1  WSCC(NW)  71  -3  WSCC(RK)  70  -4  WSCC(SW)  82  NC      Range St=
andard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   72 66 70 =
69 68 80 84 83  Max    76 70 81 72 74 87 87 86  Min     68 61 67 65 61 78 8=
2 81  Range  8 10 13 7 13 9 5 5  StD-P  2.6 4.4 4.1 2.7 4.8 2.6 1.7 1.7  Co=
unt  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun 14, 2001.  Sync=
rasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image t=
o enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  76  -3  ERCOT(SP)  87  -2  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC=
(NE)  80  NC  MAIN(CTR)  73  -4  MAPP(HP)  70  -5  NPCC(NE)  78  +2  SERC(S=
E)  85  -1  SPP(SP)  80  -5  WSCC(NW)  74  -1  WSCC(RK)  73  -4  WSCC(SW)  =
83  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  S=
W   Mean   68 71 70 71 75 80 80 85  Max    73 78 78 75 82 86 85 88  Min    =
 61 64 66 69 69 78 74 83  Range  11 15 13 6 12 8 11 5  StD-P  4.8 5.7 3.2 2=
.5 3.9 2.3 5.0 1.9  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Summary Forecast for Fr=
i, Jun 15, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix     =
     (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  76  +1  ERCOT(SP)  88  +5  =
FRCC(SE)  90  +10  MAAC(NE)  78  +5  MAIN(CTR)  74  -1  MAPP(HP)  72  -4  N=
PCC(NE)  75  +8  SERC(SE)  85  +7  SPP(SP)  84  -1  WSCC(NW)  74  +8  WSCC(=
RK)  77  NC  WSCC(SW)  83  -1      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP=
  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   70 76 68 73 81 80 83 84  Max    76 79 76 =
77 84 86 89 88  Min     64 74 64 71 78 78 77 82  Range  12 5 12 6 5 8 12 6 =
 StD-P  5.4 1.7 3.1 2.2 1.4 2.4 4.3 2.0  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Su=
mmary Forecast for Sat, Jun 16, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   V=
olatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  63  -1=
2  ERCOT(SP)  80  -4  FRCC(SE)  81  +1  MAAC(NE)  65  -10  MAIN(CTR)  68  -=
7  MAPP(HP)  74  +5  NPCC(NE)  62  -7  SERC(SE)  76  -2  SPP(SP)  80  -6  W=
SCC(NW)  72  +3  WSCC(RK)  83  +9  WSCC(SW)  80  -1      Range Standard Dev=
iation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   70 75 66 75 80 78 8=
4 83  Max    73 80 71 78 84 79 90 87  Min     67 70 62 72 73 77 81 80  Rang=
e  6 10 9 7 11 2 9 7  StD-P  2.5 4.6 3.9 2.9 3.8 1.0 3.2 2.8  Count  4 4 4 =
4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 17, 2001.  Syncrasy's Cho=
ice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)=
     ECAR(CTR)  70  -3  ERCOT(SP)  82  -3  FRCC(SE)  79  -2  MAAC(NE)  66  =
-7  MAIN(CTR)  72  NC  MAPP(HP)  76  +8  NPCC(NE)  59  -9  SERC(SE)  76  -2=
  SPP(SP)  84  NC  WSCC(NW)  73  +2  WSCC(RK)  83  +8  WSCC(SW)  80  +2    =
  Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean  =
 66 67 64 63 69 75 77 72  Max    72 81 68 73 85 77 83 80  Min     59 53 62 =
53 49 73 71 63  Range  13 29 6 20 36 4 12 17  StD-P  5.8 14.2 2.5 9.9 16.2 =
1.8 5.5 8.1  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around an=
d formatted for the  Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader S=
ummary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  =
or  www.truequote.com     =09
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